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Bet history seems wrong. Is it? Example

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Bullseye

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Bet history seems wrong. Is it? Example
« on: April 17, 2020, 04:57:43 am »
Why did this bet of chance 81.9 High result in a profit if the Lucky Roll was 43.6285?

118820017523 -- 4/16/2020 11:20 PM -- True -- 81.9 -- 0.000211308414284547 -- 43.6285 -- 0.000046421585715453

Also, what are the gold and grey colors on the Roll result?

Thank you,

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Seuntjie

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Re: Bet history seems wrong. Is it? Example
« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2020, 07:20:00 am »
What site was this and can you post a screenshot please?

Regarding the colors: https://bot.seuntjie.com/faqs.aspx#faq26
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 07:22:49 am by Seuntjie »

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Bullseye

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Re: Bet history seems wrong. Is it? Example
« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2020, 12:02:14 am »
The site was 999dice.  I don't have that screenshot, but it happens often, so i will either dig out some examples from my history or grab a shot next time it happens.

Do you recommend a better 0.1% house edge site?

Also, i understand the green and red roll results, but what are the grey and gold?

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Seuntjie

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Re: Bet history seems wrong. Is it? Example
« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2020, 12:06:53 am »
The site was 999dice.  I don't have that screenshot, but it happens often, so i will either dig out some examples from my history or grab a shot next time it happens.

Do you recommend a better 0.1% house edge site?

Also, i understand the green and red roll results, but what are the grey and gold?

I don't think there is another one. Did you read the FAQ I posted? It's explained there.

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Bullseye

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Re: Bet history seems wrong. Is it? Example
« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2020, 04:19:43 am »
I read the F.A.Q. but i can't decipher this:

"golden brown color if they would have won whichever way they rolled given thechance to winthey had chosen"  How is it possible to win high AND low on the same roll?

  And for the grey in the image below, why wouldn't i have won if i bet high on 49.5?


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Seuntjie

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Re: Bet history seems wrong. Is it? Example
« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2020, 07:08:27 am »
I read the F.A.Q. but i can't decipher this:

"golden brown color if they would have won whichever way they rolled given thechance to winthey had chosen"  How is it possible to win high AND low on the same roll?

  And for the grey in the image below, why wouldn't i have won if i bet high on 49.5?



If you roll at 49.5% chance, you have to roll Below 49.5 when rolling low or above 50.49 when rolling high, which means anything between 49.5 and 50.49 can never win when rolling at that chance. To make it more clear, take 10% chance. You have to roll below 10 or above 89.99, so 30,40,50,60,70 etc can never win at 10% chance.

If you're betting at 80% chance, you need to roll below 80 or above 19.99. So if you roll 50, regardless of which direction, you chose the roll will win.

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Bullseye

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Re: Bet history seems wrong. Is it? Example
« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2020, 02:09:26 am »
Oh, but i thought that 999dice was using the the decimal tenths, hence the 0.1% house advantage. You still have to roll a full 1.0 less/more?  That seems to go against the whole point of the site.

Or am i missing something (again)?

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Seuntjie

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Re: Bet history seems wrong. Is it? Example
« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2020, 07:41:38 am »
Oh, but i thought that 999dice was using the the decimal tenths, hence the 0.1% house advantage. You still have to roll a full 1.0 less/more?  That seems to go against the whole point of the site.

Or am i missing something (again)?

No, but you're still playing at 49.5% chance in the screenshots....

you calculate payout as (100-edge)/chance.
So for 999dice when playing at 49.5 chance your payout is: (100-0.1)/49.5 = 99.9/49.5 = 2.018
If you want to play at exactly 2x payout, you need to adjust your chance. Reverse the equation and you get (100-0.1)/2 = 49.95. Since 999 dice works with 4 decimals for their rolls, you need to roll below 49.95 when rolling low or above 50.0499 when rolling high

You need to tell the bot what chance to play at in your script.

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Bullseye

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Re: Bet history seems wrong. Is it? Example
« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2020, 02:58:03 pm »
Thank you so  much!

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Bullseye

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Re: Bet history seems wrong. Is it? Example
« Reply #9 on: April 30, 2020, 08:32:06 pm »
You need to tell the bot what chance to play at in your script.

You mean i have to set chance = x , correct?  Yes, that is there.  Still a little fuzzy on the below results.  Why are these losses?  Having a hard time w/ this and really need to understand so i can test properly:


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Seuntjie

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Re: Bet history seems wrong. Is it? Example
« Reply #10 on: April 30, 2020, 09:05:22 pm »
You need to tell the bot what chance to play at in your script.

You mean i have to set chance = x , correct?  Yes, that is there.  Still a little fuzzy on the below results.  Why are these losses?  Having a hard time w/ this and really need to understand so i can test properly:



your CHANCE is 39. Which means 39% of the numbers will win. If you're rolling high, that means, you need to roll 99.99 and 60.99 (99.99-39 = 60.99)
If you are rolling LOW, you need to roll between 0 and 39.00.

You're confusing TARGET and CHANCE. When rolling on HIGH at a 39% CHANCE your TARGET is 60.99


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Bullseye

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Re: Bet history seems wrong. Is it? Example
« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2020, 09:17:48 pm »
You're confusing TARGET and CHANCE.

I certainly WAS!  :)   That is a very important distinction.   Thank you again.  Back to the drawing board...

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Bullseye

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Re: Bet history seems wrong. Is it? Example
« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2020, 06:49:45 pm »
OK, one more time....   

This makes no sense!  I read your response and looked at this new chart with that in mind but here is the truth as i see it according to these results shown on this chart.  Sorry i keep asking this but i feel like my eyes are lying to me.  I just want to know why the greys are considered losses.  Thank you.

I am betting with 39.9% chance, HIGH
When the Roll is OVER that number, i win.  Below that number, i lose
But why WHY?!? Why do i lose on those rolls in the 50s range (in grey)?


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Seuntjie

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Re: Bet history seems wrong. Is it? Example
« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2020, 06:55:23 pm »
You're confusing chance and target again. Just read my previous post again because I can literally only type the same thing again. If you want the bot to win at that range, you need to play at 60% chance.

Maybe this screenshot from primedice will clear it up for you:



The bot shows your CHANCE because that affects your payout directly (regardless of which direction you're betting in). You're thinking about TARGET which is a combination of CHANCE and HIGH. When betting low, your target is (min roll+CHANCE) so 0+CHANCE typically. If you're betting HIGH, your TARGET is (MAX ROLL - CHANCE ) which is typically 99.99-CHANCE, so in this case, 60.99.

The bot shows chance, you're thinking about target. I literally do not know how else to explain it.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2020, 06:58:46 pm by Seuntjie »

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Bullseye

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Re: Bet history seems wrong. Is it? Example
« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2020, 01:06:49 pm »
ok...  i FINALLY got it .   So sorry about the back and forth on this.

Knowledge is power!